“The Summer 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the euro area economy will contract by 8.7% in 2020 and grow by 6.1% in 2021. The EU economy is forecast to contract by 8.3% in 2020 and grow by 5.8% in 2021. The contraction in 2020 is, therefore, projected to be significantly greater than the 7.7% projected for […]
EU
Summer 2020 Economic Forecast: An even deeper recession with wider divergences (European Commission)
Germany Weighs Measures Against U.S. Over Nord Stream Threat (Bloomberg)
“Germany is preparing to strike back against the U.S. if President Donald Trump follows through on his threat to kill off the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with additional sanctions.” – by Patrick Donahue and Brian Parkin
Germany’s Angela Merkel unveils stimulus package to kickstart economy (Deutsche Weld)
“Chancellor Angela Merkel said Wednesday that Germany was set to plow 130 billion euros ($146 billion) into rebooting an economy severely hit by the coronavirus pandemic. The measures include temporarily cutting value-added tax form 19% to 16%, providing families with an additional €300 per child and doubling a government-supported rebate on electric car purchases.”
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, and the FT (ECB)
“The ECJ ruled in December 2018 that the PSPP is legal. Therefore, it is clear for us that we can and have to continue our monetary policy in line with our mandate to make sure that in the medium term we are getting back to our inflation aim of below, but close to, 2 per […]
How will COVID-19 impact Brexit? (Bruegel)
“Talks have been delayed, the negotiators themselves have been sick and policymakers have needed to give their full attention to fighting the virus. Nevertheless, the U.K. continues to insist it will not ask for or accept an extension in June, the current deadline for establishing such measures. As a result, European politics is back to its […]
Investing in Europe in 2020 – The Year Ahead
An overview of some European key themes and political risks for 2020
2020 brings with it the 10th year of recovery since the global financial crisis. Equity markets continue to break records, ample credit is available, yet the bullish performance appears cosmetic at times and investing in Europe in 2020 is fraught with political risks. The US deficit doubled from $385bn to $779bn last year, the UK […]
Brexit is arriving at the beginning of the end (Washington Post)
“At midnight Friday Brussels time, Britain, after 47 years of being part of shaping the process of European integration, formally leaves the European Union. The Union Jack disappears from the flagpoles in Brussels, and all British representatives leave the meetings, committees and institutions of the E.U.” by Carl Bildt ex-PM of Sweden
Banking after Brexit (Bruegel)
“Will Brexit damage Britain’s financial services industry? Or is talk of its diminished status just a storm in a teacup? The City of London could move closer to Wall Street or it might become ‘Singapore-on-Thames’.” – Nicholas Barrett talks to Rebecca Christie
Christine Lagarde prepares sweeping review of ECB’s strategy (FT)
” Process will put her stamp on the central bank and seek to resolve recent divisions.” – by Martin Arnold
Congress, Nord Stream II, and Ukraine (The Brookings Institute)
“It will prove difficult for Congress to make Europe cut its dependence on Russian gas.” – by Steven Pifer