2020 brings with it the 10th year of recovery since the global financial crisis. Equity markets continue to break records, ample credit is available, yet the bullish performance appears cosmetic at times and investing in Europe in 2020 is fraught with political risks. The US deficit doubled from $385bn to $779bn last year, the UK […]
UK
Investing in Europe in 2020 – The Year Ahead
An overview of some European key themes and political risks for 2020
Brexit Britain faces the gunboats (Politico)
US-UK Trade Deal: “Securing a trade deal with the US could require foreign policy concessions.” by Emilio Casalicchio
Boris Johnson Hails Election Triumph (Politico)
“Boris Johnson’s big gamble paid off in spectacular fashion. The Conservatives have won their first sizable majority in decades, having taken dozens of seats from Labour, including many that had been held by the party since they were created.” – by Eleni Courea
Brexit Limbo Strikes Again (Politico)
“For the first time in more than three years since the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, a majority of British MPs accepted an exit plan.” – by Emilio Casalicchio and David Herszenhorn
UK’s bank challengers are fading in fight with big four (FT)
“The new entrants were supposed to revitalise the UK’s banking market — instead they are looking sick.” – by Nicholas Megaw
How Ireland lost patience with Brexiting Brits (Politico)
“While Westminster has been distracted by Johnson’s charge toward an election, the profound implications of the London-Dublin fault-line — particularly for Northern Ireland — are slowly beginning to surface.” – by Naomi O’Leary
MW is Short Burford Capital Ltd (Muddy Waters Research)
“We are short BUR. For years, it was the ultimate “trust me” stock. Thanks to a light disclosure regime, the esoteric nature of its business, and unethical behavior by its largest shareholder, Invesco, it turned Enron-esque mark-to-model accounting into the biggest stock promotion on the AIM.” – Muddy Waters Research
European Alternatives Industry Hits €1.62 Trillion in Assets (CIO)
“Despite the European macroeconomic picture being “muted” for the past two years, last year saw record activity in most alternative asset classes. European alternative asset fund managers held €1.62 trillion ($1.82 trillion) in assets as of June 2018, up €300 billion in three years” – by Michael Katz
Boris Johnson wins race to be Tory leader and PM (BBC News)
“Boris Johnson has been elected new Conservative leader in a ballot of party members and will become the next UK prime minister.” – by Laura Kuenssberg
Why British Steel is hoping to avoid scrapheap (FT)
“Plant set to keep trading but outlook is clouded by deep-rooted problems.”- by Michael Pooler, Andy Bounds and Chris Tighe